July 17, 2006
Newsweek.com article
Republicans Will “Flip-Flop” on Iraq Just in Time for Re-election in 2008

"Given that this debate is so vital, and understanding that, while headlines may come and go, the true dangers of a prolonged war in Iraq will continue, Americans would do well to begin to separate Bush Administration spin from reality. Let's examine three administration myths about the war:

Myth #1: U.S. forces will be withdrawn when military commanders determine the Iraqis are capable of maintaining their own security. This is utter nonsense, and I would be willing to bet a substantial sum that every military planner in the Pentagon knows it...The Republican Party is terrified of Iraq, and Rove, as the architect of the 2008 GOP presidential campaign strategy, will time the withdrawal of U.S. forces precisely to coincide with that election. That means U.S. forces will be reduced to an "acceptable threshold" sometime during the spring or summer of 2008...Put more succinctly, the war is now being fought to try to ensure a Republican victory in November of 2008. While this seems both obscene and outrageous, one need only watch the drawdown schedule evolve...”

"From a purely military standpoint, the war in Iraq is an unmitigated disaster. This administration failed to make even a cursory effort at adequately defining the political end state they sought to achieve by removing Saddam Hussein, making it impossible to precisely define long-term military success. That, in turn, makes it impossible to lay out a rational exit strategy for U.S. troops. Like Vietnam, the military is again being asked to clean up the detritus of a failed foreign policy. We are nose-deep in a protracted insurgency, an occupying Christian power in an oil-rich, Arab country. That country is not now and has never been a single nation. A single, unified, democratic Iraq comprised of Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis is a willfully ignorant illusion at best...

...So what strategies should candidate Kerry propose?

1. Define the political end state. A "free and democratic Iraq" is not a realistic political goal. A loose coalition of Kurdistan (Kurds), a Central Arab Republic (Sunni) and a Southern Arab Republic (Shia) might be. Whatever the goal, the political objective must precede the military objective, and it must be forged by the experts at the State Department, not the Pentagon….”

Prelude to War...A Dire Warning Nine Days Before the Start of Operation Iraqi Freedom
"Morning Edition," March 11, 2003

"The uniformed Joint Staff in the Pentagon strongly opposed this plan early on. It requires an attack with a force half that of Desert Storm against an entrenched urban enemy renowned for its ruthlessness in defending its own survival. The uniformed Joint Staff was overridden, yet in so many horrifying ways this operation resembles Somalia, not Desert Storm….Perhaps we can pull this off, but here's a far worse scenario that's at least as likely.

…The war ends within a few weeks, but the crisis deepens. The US is left to administer a political vacuum in Iraq. Iran is emboldened to help the Shiites in the south. Disease breaks out, food and water are contaminated and the cost of the war skyrockets. The US economy is dealt a body blow, but the administration can find no credible way out. Britain's Prime Minister Blair is voted out of office.

These are not remote possibilities, but in my view reasonable, possibly even likely outcomes. Thousands of American sons and daughters are about to go to war with Iraq. They will do their duty. They are, without exception, the finest, bravest people I know. May God bless them. I hope their destination is Baghdad and not Mogadishu.”